Analysis of Nikon, Canon, Sony and Fuji, and the interchangeable lens camera market

In September 2018 Nikon and Canon entered the mirrorless full frame market. Nikon with their Z7 and Z6, two identical bodies with slightly different specs, and Canon with their single EOS R camera. Both Nikon and Canon designed completely new lens mount systems for these cameras, promising faster and sharper glass in the future. While these cameras are no slouches, they are not flagships, but they certainly come with a premium price tag. Sony, the market leader in full frame mirrorless cameras is for the first time facing real competition, and is most likely preparing to counter. Rumor has it that  Panasonic is entering the full frame mirrorless market as well, so things will definitely get interesting. Then there’s also Fuji with their crop-sensor cameras popular as second bodies among enthusiasts who typically shoot with real cameras from Nikon and Canon.

What do these launches tell about the companies

Generally, the entrance of Nikon and Canon into a serious mirrorless game tells me that we’ve reached peak DSLR. There’s probably no better all-around DSLR than the Nikon D850 right now. From ergonomics to optics to durability and features, Nikon has been out-innovating Canon in the DSLR technology in the past 3 years. Not only with the D850, also with cameras like the D500 and D7500, two amazing APS-C cameras with great performance and fair price points, completely obliterating Canon’s equivalents. Canon, who is still DSLR market leader, has been crippling their professional cameras of late, especially in video, where they used to be the leader of innovation, frustrating their own customers, who have more and more begun to look elsewhere, to companies like Sony and Panasonic.

Nikon Z and Nikon’s future



Nikon’s jump into the mirrorless game was huge: The company introduced 2 full frame cameras and 4 lenses, as well as an F to Z-mount adapter, that should help bridging the gap in the transition period, and enable current owners of F-mount lenses the chance to enter the Z-system at a lower cost. Considering Nikon’s emphasis on the familiarity of the hardware and software design, as well as publishing a comprehensive lens roadmap of the next 3 years, the company is clearly signaling that in the far future this is what Nikon will be. Nikon is heading towards a real transition, which means most of their lens engineering will be focused on the Z-mount rather than F-mount, and one can expect several new Z-Series bodies to be released in the upcoming years (a D5 kind of mirrorless equivalent was already confirmed by Nikon’s management). The question with Nikon is how long will this transition period last. They also stated that they will maintain their DSLRs along the Mirrorless offerings, but that seems to be a challenge in the ever shrinking ILC market. I can see Nikon keeping their D3000 series entry level DSLRs, they are their bread and butter in emerging markets like India. But having a D750 successor along with a Z6 seems very difficult, unless Nikon is able to gain market share and sell both in some good quantities. What I foresee here unfortunately is that the Z7 and Z6 cameras will eat the sales of the D750 and the D850, and perhaps of the Canon 6D II, as well as the Sony A7 and A7R III, or whatever their successors will be named. For existing Nikon users the Z-System will be very appealing: Video, one of Nikon’s Achille’s heels in the past, has seen huge improvements, especially the auto focus. Nikon is now seriously in the 4K game directly competing with Sony and Panasonic, overtaking Canon, Fuji and Olympus. While Canon is purposely crippling their ILC cameras of competitive video functions, Fuji and Olympus just plainly fall short of Nikon. Sony might still be ahead with their A7S series, but most likely by a tiny margin. Nikon is now offering the complete package: A familiar Nikon design and feel with some of the best full frame sensors in the industry with amazing image quality, new premium lenses competing with companies like Zeiss, and great video functions, making their Z6 and Z7 very tempting for hybrid shooters. With their F-mount lenses, that can be adapted, they seem to have the most complete hybrid system out there right now. Nikon’s future is bright, and all the hype they created was exceeded. Bravo, Nikon!

Canon EOS R and Canon’s future



Canon jumped into the full frame mirrorless market with a single camera: The *EOS R*. A fairly chunky body (slightly bigger and yet a bit lighter than Nikon Z6 and Z7) came with 3 new lenses, two of them very fast, which made the whole system bigger (DSLR like), as well as very costly (over 5000 USD for certain body and lens combinations). Some of Canon’s marketing people also emphasized that the camera shall be considered as a second body along with your Canon DSLR. There is no IBIS in Canon’s new camera, which upset a lot of Canon video shooters. Two things I can observe from this: Canon, global DSLR market leader, doesn’t believe that mirrorless is taking over the world (yet). Being market leader for so many years, they are definitely capable to analyze every market and understand what is the best strategy for their company to remain dominant in the next years and decades. The full frame mirrorless market is still relatively small due to price points above 2000 USD, and may not represent a lot of revenue for Canon, even if they had launched 2 bodies with dual card slots and IBIS. Canon will definitely innovate in the full frame mirrorless segment, but at a slower pace than Nikon for example. They don’t need to. They have a cinema line of cameras, compact cameras, as well as printers where they are quite dominant. They’re also regarded as one of the best in lens design, another area where they don’t want to lose dominance (hence they launched 3 adapters). Nikon on the other hand enjoys half of Canon’s global market share, and is only strong in binoculars and industrial optics, which are not very large businesses on their own. If Nikon has to survive, they need to reinvent themselves - and that’s what they’re clearly doing right now. Canon’s challenge is the opposite, they want to remain market leader, so they chose to enter the full frame mirrorless, but not set the market on fire. But they are definitely a force to be reckoned with: They will come out strong in 2 or 3 years I believe, when the market is ready.

Sony Alpha and its future


Sony’s had a very strong growth rate in the full frame mirrorless market in the past 3 years, but the pace of innovation has declined this year. It peaked with the A9 somewhat, which was basically an A7R II on steroids. Then came the A7R III, which was basically a bug-free A7R II and the A7, which was a cheaper and stripped down version of the A7R II. In terms of innovations, not much was new: The ergonomics are stil horrible like any Sony Alpha camera to date, the menu system is bad, the weather sealing non-existent, and reliability remains questionable. Where Sony improved is lenses: They pushed out more native lenses together with 3rd parties like Tamron and Sigma, making their system usable between 20-200mm. In terms of native telephoto lenses they are still way behind Nikon and Canon, especially when it comes to fast primes, they have nothing to show with a few exceptions. Nikon on the other hand is making amazing PF lenses (300mm, 500mm), showing that real innovation in lens design is still possible. They’re also proving this with their new Z-mount and S-Line lenses, that are destroying every G-Master equivalent (Sony’s mount was actually designed for APS-C cameras). Sony’s only strength remains their sensor design, that’s where I believe they can make gains, but if they want to compete with Nikon and Canon in the future, they would need to redesign their small mount as well as the ergonomics of their bodies. The latter will very likely happen, the mount however is a big question mark, and we have yet to see how Sony plans to counter Canon and Nikon in this regard.

Fuji X and the future of Fuji

Fuji is popular among cat photographers.

I don’t consider Fuji a serious camera company. With their APS-C cameras and Instax series they surely enjoy a cult following among their core users (middle-aged men, girls). They’re also trying hard to offer good service and free updates (usually because just like Sony their cameras have so many hardware and software issues that need to be fixed). Designed for JPEG shooters, who buy a camera based on their retro look and film simulations instead of image quality and usability, Fuji X cameras are very popular among enthusiasts and pros as second systems for their hobby photography and Instagram. Fuji is best suitable for images of flowers, cats and grandma. With the X-T3 Fuji released an upgraded version of their X-T2, which they had to heavily discount to move out the inventory. The price point of the new X-T3 was set lower than its predecessor, a first in the camera world in the past few years - the X-T2 was not selling, that’s the reason. Fuji had to lower production cost to enable a lower price for the consumer, hence they moved production from Japan to China. Being “Made in Japan” was a common point of bragging for Fuji users, but the reality is that there’s no room for Fuji X series in the above 2000 USD price point. The X-H1 is a flop. An overpriced X-T2 with IBIS for enhanced video capabilities, an additional film simulation, and a DSRL-styled grip, it didn’t sell much, and is right now worse in video than the 500 USD cheaper X-T3. Fuji’s product strategy is a big mess. They want to play in the serious camera segment, but keep falling short. At the same time they are racing to the bottom by releasing cheaper and heavily crippled cameras (like the X100T), but still remain too expensive for first time ILC buyers who usually buy a 500 USD DSLR kit. The value preposition is poor with Fuji, and there’s no real innovation, just iteration of the same. Sure, the X-T3 now seems to be a fully functional camera after the terribly slow X-T1 and the somewhat better X-T2, which had lots of durability and quality issues. We can only hope that the X-T3 will prove to be better, however I would not recommend anyone to seriously invest in Fuji X lenses and bodies. One shall be enough for your holiday snapshots.

Conclusions

We haven’t yet reached peak camera, but the differences in terms of performance and image quality are getting really small these days. Most new-age Instagram and Facebook photographers don’t need a full frame mirrorless, or dual card slots, or IBIS. Yet these millennial online warriors feel compelled to verbally fight with strangers over camera specs. Specs are only important when you have a specific need, it’s for niches or for specific pro needs, but your average Joe will be perfectly fine whether he buys a Canon, Nikon, Sony or Fuji camera these days. Even the entry level models are so much better as any camera in the early 2000s. At the end it should be about the image, about the fun of photography, about the composition, art, emotions, not arguing about camera companies as if they were people you have an affection for. It’s also time for me to close this topic and go out and shoot. My D810 hasn’t seen much action this month.